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Filing from Taiwan, where Rigger is serving as a Fulbright U.S. Scholar, she wrote in the highly influential blog that the Taiwanese are watching Hong Kong very closely. The two regions share similarly strained relationships with mainland China.

Despite being claimed as a territory of the People’s Republic of China, Taiwan has maintained a multiparty democracy. China has tried to woo the Taiwanese, proposing the “One Country, Two Systems” model that would supposedly unite the countries as one without changing the Taiwanese government.

However, the events in Hong Kong, which is governed under the OCTS model, have revived fresh doubt in Beijing’s genuine interest in that system. To complicate matters, Taiwan is in the midst of a presidential campaign.

“While domestic issues are important, managing relations with Beijing successfully is paramount. Voters’ confidence in the ability of Taiwan’s candidates and parties to keep the relationship stable and fend off pressure for unification tends to be the most important variable shaping their vote choice,” Rigger wrote.